The TRUE process is a collaborative effort between the TRUE and Project Teams. The diagram on the left illustrates the fundamental steps in TRUE.
The level of detail for a given TRUE depends on the needs of the client and on the time and resources available.

The entire TRUE is typically conducted within a cooperative workshop environment. However, certain steps in the process may be conducted more efficiently in smaller workgroups (i.e., a few people at a time), depending on the technical expertise required to complete the task.

A description of each step in the process is listed below. The steps can also be viewed by placing the mouse cursor over each box in the diagram.

1. Review Project Plan:
• Review current approved scope, plans, and assumptions.
• Identify all the major project activities (e.g., environmental process, right-of-way acquisition, design, construction phases) and their sequence in the form of a comprehensive project flow chart. The project flowchart typically consists of several tens of major project activities. Preliminary flow charts, which form the basis of existing estimates, may be available as a starting point.


2. Review Activity Base Costs and Durations. Estimate the most likely cost and duration of each major activity if no major problems occur (i.e., “base” costs and durations). Preliminary estimates of these costs and durations should already be available and need to be reviewed. Also assess the uncertainty in these estimates (e.g., 2/3 chance that the actual values will be within 10% of the most likely value).
3. Develop Risk Registry: Identify all potential problems and opportunities (collectively called “risk events”) that could lead to significant changes in cost or duration for each project activity. Also identify the possible causes of such risk events (e.g., a “fault tree”) and the possible subsequent outcomes that could follow from such events (e.g., an “event tree”). For many problems, the fault and event trees may be greatly simplified.
4. Develop Cost and Schedule Uncertainty Model: Based on the project flowchart and the risk registry, develop a computer model to evaluate the risk and uncertainty in total project cost and schedule. Uncertainty in additional measures of interest (e.g., time to completion of an important project milestone) can also be evaluated.
5. Conduct Risk Assessment: Develop/assess the likelihoods and consequences of risks identified in the risk registry:
• Assess the Likelihoods: Based on expert interpretation of available information regarding the possible causes of risk events, assess the likelihood of such causes occurring. From these assessments, in conjunction with the fault trees, determine the likelihood of each risk event occurring.
• Assess the Conditional Consequences: Assess the likelihood of possible followon events occurring for each risk event, and the consequences (in terms of likely additional cost and duration for various activities) if they do occur. From these assessments, in conjunction with the event trees, determine the likely consequences for each risk event, if it occurs.
6. Evaluate Uncertainty in Cost and Schedule:
• Evaluate the Risks: Integrate over all activities and risk events, the “base” costs and durations, and the likelihood and likely consequences of risk event occurrence, to determine the uncertainty in actual project costs and schedule. This integration is performed with an appropriate numerical model based on the project flowchart and the assessed base and risk inputs.
• Identify the Critical Risks: Identify the most significant problems (i.e., those which contribute the most to the “risk” cost or schedule) and identify possible ways to reduce the risk associated with those problems (i.e., by either reducing their likelihood or their consequences of occurrence).
7. Evaluate Risk-Management Strategies: For critical risks and uncertainties, evaluate the cost and duration to implement each risk management activity, and evaluate the benefits of each risk management activity if implemented. Benefits are quantified in terms of likely reduction in “risk” costs and durations, based on assessments of how much the likelihood or consequences of occurrence of various problems would be reduced if the activity were implemented. Possible changes in the cost/duration or benefits for a particular risk management activity if it is conducted in combination with other risk management activities (i.e., if complementary or competing) must be considered. Recommend those risk management activities that are shown to be cost-effective (i.e., benefits exceed costs).
8. Report Results: Typically in a presentation to the combined team (i.e., project team and the TRUE team), followed up with a written report.