A 14-mile-long monorail system has been proposed extending from the Ballard area to the north, through downtown Seattle and extending into West Seattle on the south. Given recent local and national experience with major cost-overruns on large transportation projects, the City of Seattle engaged the TRUE collaborative to: 1) review the cost estimates that have been prepared for parts of this project; and 2) evaluate the probability that the new monorail entity could build the proposed system with a proposed vehicle-licensing tax. The initial study was completed during a three-week period in the summer of 2002. An update was performed in March 2003 to incorporate recent project developments and to track the effectiveness of risk-management actions identified during the initial study. Results from this updated study can be found at the following location: www.elevated.org/_downloads/Meetings/March_2003_Risk_Analysis_Review.pdf.

Members of the TRUE collaborative were all charter members of WSDOT’s initial Cost-Estimate Validation Process (CEVP), which was developed and implemented in 2002. The TRUE collaborative members were also integral to the follow-up CEVP conducted in the spring and summer of 2003, including extensive training of WSDOT staff. As part of the CEVP “core team” during the 2002 CEVP, the TRUE members conducted cost and scope reviews and quantified uncertainty in project cost and schedule for ten transportation “mega-projects” (with values ranging from several hundred million to several billion US$) and for 35 smaller projects (with values ranging from several million to several hundred million US$). Each of the mega-project studies was completed during an intense one-week workshop, followed by report preparation. The smaller project studies were conducted in less detail and each study was typically completed in one day. The team members conducted project cost and schedule uncertainty updates to many of the same projects, as well as for some new projects, during the 2003 CEVP. Among others, the projects included:

• State Route 99 - Alaskan Way Viaduct
• State Route 520 - Translake Project (including the Evergreen Point Floating Bridge replacement)
• State Route 405 Corridor Improvements
• State Route 104 – Hood Canal Bridge East-Half Replacement
• Interstate 90 – HOV and Transit Improvements from Bellevue to Seattle
• State Route 509 – Extension south of SeaTac airport and tie-in to Interstate 5

Descriptions for these and the other CEVP projects, as well as results from the studies, can be found at the following location: www.wsdot.wa.gov/projects/cevp.

The construction of a third parallel runway for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport (Sea-Tac) is a part of a major upgrade and expansion of the airport by the Port of Seattle. The third runway project represents a major investment in the transportation infrastructure of the Puget Sound area. In May 2003, TRUE members led a team that worked with the Third Runway project team to: 1) validate the cost and schedule estimate, 2) quantify uncertainty in the project cost and schedule, and 3) identify and prioritize critical risks and opportunities for risk management. More on the airport’s expansion can be found at the following location: www.portofseattle.org/seatac/projects/default.htm.

Expansion and redevelopment efforts within downtown Pittsburgh have renewed interest in a major fixed-guideway transit investment to serve the area. The Port Authority of Allegheny County (PAAC) is considering a transit investment to more effectively link the Golden Triangle and Pittsburgh's North Shore. The proposed North Shore Connector project consists of two new segments. The first consists of twin half-mile long mined tunnels underneath the Allegheny River connecting to an elevated section in an urban environment. The second is cut-and-cover tunnel in an urban environment. During June and July of 2003, members of the TRUE collaborative worked with the North Shore Connector project team to: 1) evaluate project cost and schedule uncertainty, and then 2) develop a potential program to manage critical risks and exploit key opportunities identified during the uncertainty assessment. More on the North Shore Connector project can be found at the following location: www.portauthority.org/grow/capital/northshore/index.asp.